December 13, 2019
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Marlon Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 280 | 1 265 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +64 |
Marlon Moraes overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jose Aldo.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Marlon Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 248 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Marlon Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 474 | 1 380 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Marlon Moraes receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Marlon Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 58 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 147 | 137 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 59 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 379 | 1 473 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
The striking was extremely close with minimal separation between fighters. However, since Jose Aldo lost the overall fight, any slight striking edge couldn't be converted into ELO gains. Marlon Moraes's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Marlon Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 305 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Marlon Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 218 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 241 | 1 310 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +24 |
Marlon Moraes demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Marlon Moraes capitalized on this activity level, while Jose Aldo's 218-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Marlon Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 216 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +31 |
Marlon Moraes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jose Aldo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Marlon Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 111 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.