December 1, 2017
UFC Featherweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 295 | 1 380 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Max Holloway's 7-fight experience advantage (18 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Max Holloway for the expected result. Had Jose Aldo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 291 | 1 350 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +69 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Max Holloway captured the UFC Featherweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:51 | 4:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 418 | 1 676 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +41 |
Max Holloway gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 87 | 174 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 163 | 397 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 89 | 181 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 267 | 1 598 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Max Holloway dominated the striking exchanges with 181 vs 89 total strikes, 174 vs 87 significant strikes, 43.8% vs 53.4% accuracy. Max Holloway capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 1 301 | 1 511 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Max Holloway controlled Jose Aldo on the ground with 0:47 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 232 | 1 462 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +12 |
Max Holloway demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Max Holloway capitalized on this activity level, while Jose Aldo's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 12 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 238 | 1 535 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +66 |
Max Holloway extended his incredible 12-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Jose Aldo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 123 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.