February 1, 2019
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 361 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Jose Aldo's 6-fight experience advantage (13 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jose Aldo for the expected result. Had Renato Moicano pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 311 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:44 | 0:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 545 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -13 |
Jose Aldo gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 53 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 441 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Jose Aldo slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Jose Aldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 359 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 284 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Jose Aldo demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jose Aldo capitalized on this activity level, while Renato Moicano's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 270 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -13 |
Jose Aldo extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Renato Moicano is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jose Aldo | Renato Moicano |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 159 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.