December 4, 2020
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jose Quinonez | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 025 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Louis Smolka's 6-fight experience advantage (15 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Louis Smolka for the expected result. Had Jose Quinonez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jose Quinonez | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 011 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jose Quinonez | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:15 | 2:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 043 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +91 |
Louis Smolka gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Quinonez | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 59 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 107 | 116 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 924 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Louis Smolka controlled the striking exchanges with 59 vs 43 significant strikes, 50.9% vs 40.2% accuracy. Louis Smolka capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Jose Quinonez | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:31 | 1:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 027 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -95 | +95 |
Louis Smolka controlled Jose Quinonez on the ground with 3 vs 2 takedowns, 1:09 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Quinonez | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 273 | 190 |
| Activity ELO | 1 029 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Louis Smolka demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Louis Smolka capitalized on this activity level, while Jose Quinonez's 273-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jose Quinonez | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Louis Smolka started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jose Quinonez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jose Quinonez | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 011 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.