September 25, 2015
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Barnett | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 176 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -24 |
Josh Barnett overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (8 vs 15 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Roy Nelson.
| Metric | Josh Barnett | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 155 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Barnett | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 424 | 1 254 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Josh Barnett earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Josh Barnett | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 146 | 60 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 205 | 114 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 215 | 92 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 317 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Josh Barnett dominated the striking exchanges with 215 vs 92 total strikes, 146 vs 60 significant strikes, 71.2% vs 52.6% accuracy. Josh Barnett capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Barnett | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 8:22 | 7:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 189 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Josh Barnett did not secure a significant ground advantage against Roy Nelson on the ground with 0 takedowns, 8:22 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Josh Barnett | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 637 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 1 177 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -19 |
Josh Barnett demonstrated extended layoff with 637 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Josh Barnett capitalized on this activity level, while Roy Nelson's 196-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Barnett | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 123 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Josh Barnett started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roy Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Barnett | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 089 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.