Josh Culibao vs Melsik Baghdasaryan

February 10, 2023

Featherweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1070
(+36)
Josh Culibao
Winner: Josh Culibao
Submission
Round 2 • 2:02

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Josh Culibao+36
Melsik Baghdasaryan-31
1040
(-31)
Melsik Baghdasaryan

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Josh Culibao: +32Melsik Baghdasaryan: -32

Performance Statistics

MetricJosh CulibaoMelsik Baghdasaryan
Total UFC Fights53
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 0771 019
ELO Change+32-32
💡

What Happened

Josh Culibao's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Culibao for the expected result. Had Melsik Baghdasaryan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Josh Culibao: +22Melsik Baghdasaryan: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricJosh CulibaoMelsik Baghdasaryan
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0431 019
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Josh Culibao: +82Melsik Baghdasaryan: -53

Performance Statistics

MetricJosh CulibaoMelsik Baghdasaryan
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:022:02
Win Type ELO1 1091 065
ELO Change+82-53
💡

What Happened

Josh Culibao earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:02, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Melsik Baghdasaryan was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Josh Culibao: +21Melsik Baghdasaryan: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJosh CulibaoMelsik Baghdasaryan
Significant Strikes Landed1626
Significant Strikes Attempted4544
Total Strikes Landed1626
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 1381 104
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

Melsik Baghdasaryan controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (26 vs 16), superior accuracy (59.1% vs 35.6%). However, since Melsik Baghdasaryan lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Josh Culibao's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Josh Culibao: +54Melsik Baghdasaryan: -54

Performance Statistics

MetricJosh CulibaoMelsik Baghdasaryan
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:140:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 0311 018
ELO Change+54-54
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Josh Culibao: +29Melsik Baghdasaryan: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricJosh CulibaoMelsik Baghdasaryan
Days Since Last Fight246462
Activity ELO1 0601 047
ELO Change+29-23
💡

What Happened

Josh Culibao demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Josh Culibao capitalized on this activity level, while Melsik Baghdasaryan's 462-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Josh Culibao: +29Melsik Baghdasaryan: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricJosh CulibaoMelsik Baghdasaryan
Win Streak30
Win Streak ELO1 0591 025
ELO Change+29-22
💡

What Happened

Josh Culibao extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melsik Baghdasaryan is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Josh Culibao: +22Melsik Baghdasaryan: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricJosh CulibaoMelsik Baghdasaryan
Weight ClassFeatherweightFeatherweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0431 019
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.