February 10, 2023
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Culibao | Melsik Baghdasaryan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 077 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Josh Culibao's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Culibao for the expected result. Had Melsik Baghdasaryan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Josh Culibao | Melsik Baghdasaryan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 043 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Culibao | Melsik Baghdasaryan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:02 | 2:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 109 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -53 |
Josh Culibao earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:02, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Melsik Baghdasaryan was submitted.
| Metric | Josh Culibao | Melsik Baghdasaryan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 138 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Melsik Baghdasaryan controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (26 vs 16), superior accuracy (59.1% vs 35.6%). However, since Melsik Baghdasaryan lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Josh Culibao's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Culibao | Melsik Baghdasaryan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 031 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Josh Culibao | Melsik Baghdasaryan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 246 | 462 |
| Activity ELO | 1 060 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -23 |
Josh Culibao demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Josh Culibao capitalized on this activity level, while Melsik Baghdasaryan's 462-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Culibao | Melsik Baghdasaryan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 059 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -22 |
Josh Culibao extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melsik Baghdasaryan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Culibao | Melsik Baghdasaryan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 043 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

