March 10, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Fremd | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 973 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Josh Fremd's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Fremd for the expected result. Had Sedriques Dumas pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Josh Fremd | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Fremd | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:00 | 3:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 001 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -51 |
Josh Fremd earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:00, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Sedriques Dumas was submitted.
| Metric | Josh Fremd | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -45 |
Josh Fremd edged the striking exchanges with 48 vs 23 total strikes, 33 vs 20 significant strikes, 54.1% vs 45.5% accuracy. Josh Fremd capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Fremd | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:27 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 054 | 789 |
| ELO Change | +211 | -211 |
Josh Fremd dominated Sedriques Dumas on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:27 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Josh Fremd | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 005 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -24 |
Josh Fremd demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Josh Fremd capitalized on this activity level, while Sedriques Dumas's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Fremd | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
Josh Fremd started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sedriques Dumas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Fremd | Sedriques Dumas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

