April 6, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Haynes | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 933 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Josh Haynes | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 941 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Haynes | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:45 | 2:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 897 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +70 |
Luke Cummo gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Haynes | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 55 | 89 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 759 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Luke Cummo controlled the striking exchanges with 43 vs 15 total strikes, 38 vs 9 significant strikes, 42.7% vs 16.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Luke Cummo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Haynes | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:23 | 0:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 879 | 931 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Luke Cummo did not secure a significant ground advantage against Josh Haynes on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:29 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Josh Haynes | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 179 | 283 |
| Activity ELO | 942 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Luke Cummo demonstrated standard activity with 283 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Luke Cummo capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Haynes's 179-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Haynes | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 941 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Luke Cummo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Haynes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Haynes | Luke Cummo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 941 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.