February 3, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 12 | -12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 212 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Josh Koscheck's 12-fight experience advantage (20 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Koscheck for the expected result. Had Mike Pierce pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 184 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 503 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | +3 | -3 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Josh Koscheck receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 95 | 119 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 388 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Mike Pierce controlled the striking through superior volume (62 vs 47 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (41 vs 33). However, since Mike Pierce lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Josh Koscheck's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:37 | 2:38 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 473 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Josh Koscheck controlled Mike Pierce on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 2:37 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 1 374 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -9 |
Josh Koscheck demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Josh Koscheck capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Pierce's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 223 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Josh Koscheck extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Pierce is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Mike Pierce |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 165 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.