February 20, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 13 | -13 |
| Experience ELO | 1 047 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -134 | +134 |
Paulo Thiago overcame a 13-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Josh Koscheck.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 097 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:29 | 3:29 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 283 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -75 | +160 |
Paulo Thiago earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:29, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 24 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 131 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -139 | +139 |
Paulo Thiago controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Paulo Thiago capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 240 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 73 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 280 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Paulo Thiago demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Paulo Thiago capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Koscheck's 73-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 136 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +33 |
Paulo Thiago started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Koscheck is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Paulo Thiago |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 091 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.