October 24, 2008
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 157 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (12 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 109 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 313 | 1 486 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Thiago Alves earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 39 | 80 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 128 | 181 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 87 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 231 | 1 491 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Thiago Alves dominated the striking exchanges with 87 vs 46 total strikes, 80 vs 39 significant strikes, 44.2% vs 30.5% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Thiago Alves capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:38 | 0:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 265 | 1 283 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Thiago Alves landed 2 knockdowns followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 277 | 1 381 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Thiago Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Koscheck's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 151 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +54 |
Thiago Alves continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Josh Koscheck's now at 0.
| Metric | Josh Koscheck | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 103 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

