October 4, 2012
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Neer | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 993 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +66 |
Justin Edwards overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 14 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Josh Neer.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:45 | 0:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 065 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +124 |
Justin Edwards locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:45 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 881 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Justin Edwards slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 6 vs 0 significant strikes, 85.7% vs 0.0% accuracy. Justin Edwards capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 0:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 974 | 975 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 335 |
| Activity ELO | 1 077 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Justin Edwards demonstrated standard activity with 335 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Justin Edwards capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Neer's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 997 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +26 |
Justin Edwards started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Neer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Justin Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.