September 30, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Neer | Keith Wisniewski |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 029 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Josh Neer's 9-fight experience advantage (11 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Neer for the expected result. Had Keith Wisniewski pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Keith Wisniewski |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 995 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Keith Wisniewski |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 080 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Josh Neer gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Keith Wisniewski |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 93 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 159 | 83 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 133 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 024 | 898 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Josh Neer dominated the striking exchanges with 133 vs 41 total strikes, 93 vs 41 significant strikes, 58.5% vs 49.4% accuracy. Josh Neer capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Keith Wisniewski |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:42 | 3:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 001 | 921 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Josh Neer did not secure a significant ground advantage against Keith Wisniewski on the ground with 0:42 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Keith Wisniewski |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 707 | 2 142 |
| Activity ELO | 1 072 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -16 |
Josh Neer demonstrated extended layoff with 707 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Josh Neer capitalized on this activity level, while Keith Wisniewski's 2142-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Keith Wisniewski |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 011 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -20 |
Josh Neer started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Keith Wisniewski is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Keith Wisniewski |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 995 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

