February 6, 2009
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Neer | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 037 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Josh Neer's 4-fight experience advantage (8 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Josh Neer for the expected result. Had Mac Danzig pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 012 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:36 | 3:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 126 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -45 |
Josh Neer earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:36, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Mac Danzig was submitted.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 96 | 66 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 68 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Josh Neer edged the striking exchanges with 46 vs 33 significant strikes. Josh Neer capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:13 | 2:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 12 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 055 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +121 | -121 |
Josh Neer dominated Mac Danzig on the ground with 2:13 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 144 | 144 |
| Activity ELO | 1 089 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -21 |
Josh Neer demonstrated solid activity levels with 144 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Josh Neer capitalized on this activity level, while Mac Danzig's 144-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 026 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -22 |
Josh Neer started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mac Danzig is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 012 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

