January 15, 2006
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Neer | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 002 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -24 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:20 | 4:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 038 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -50 |
Josh Neer earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:20, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 51 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 12 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 949 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Melvin Guillard controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (11 vs 3), superior accuracy (21.6% vs 33.3%). However, since Melvin Guillard lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Josh Neer's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:51 | 1:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 997 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -77 |
Josh Neer controlled Melvin Guillard on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:51 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 164 | 72 |
| Activity ELO | 1 019 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -24 |
Josh Neer demonstrated solid activity levels with 164 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Josh Neer capitalized on this activity level, while Melvin Guillard's 72-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
Josh Neer started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Melvin Guillard is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.