September 16, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 004 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +27 |
Nate Diaz overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Josh Neer.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 989 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 057 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | -6 | +6 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Nate Diaz receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 114 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 976 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Nate Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 114 vs 48 total strikes, 40 vs 26 significant strikes. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 11 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:36 | 7:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 934 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Nate Diaz controlled Josh Neer on the ground with 5 vs 4 takedowns, 7:29 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 048 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +25 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Neer's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +31 |
Nate Diaz continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Josh Neer's now at 0.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 989 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.