August 25, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Nick Diaz's 4-fight experience advantage (9 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nick Diaz for the expected result. Had Josh Neer pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:42 | 1:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 009 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +55 |
Nick Diaz earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:42, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Josh Neer was submitted.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 75 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 62 | 199 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 186 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 930 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Nick Diaz dominated the striking exchanges with 186 vs 33 total strikes, 75 vs 25 significant strikes. Nick Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:10 | 2:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 825 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -165 | +165 |
Nick Diaz dominated Josh Neer on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 2:01 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 49 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 038 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +45 |
Nick Diaz demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Nick Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Neer's 49-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 989 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +24 |
Nick Diaz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Neer is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Neer | Nick Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.