June 18, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Parisian | Roque Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 998 | 912 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -29 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Josh Parisian | Roque Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 998 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Parisian | Roque Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 962 | 903 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Josh Parisian receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Josh Parisian | Roque Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 79 | 64 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 160 | 114 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 100 | 245 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 985 | 897 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Roque Martinez controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (245 vs 100 total strikes), significant strike advantage (64 vs 79). However, since Roque Martinez lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Josh Parisian's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Parisian | Roque Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:23 | 4:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 932 | 764 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Josh Parisian did not secure a significant ground advantage against Roque Martinez on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 4:23 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Josh Parisian | Roque Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 217 |
| Activity ELO | 1 003 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -20 |
Josh Parisian demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Josh Parisian capitalized on this activity level, while Roque Martinez's 217-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Parisian | Roque Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 000 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Josh Parisian started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roque Martinez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Parisian | Roque Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.