April 28, 2023
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Quinlan | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 996 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -79 | +79 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Josh Quinlan | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 998 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Quinlan | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 037 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Trey Waters earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Josh Quinlan | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 104 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 128 | 203 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 106 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 025 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Trey Waters dominated the striking exchanges with 106 vs 50 total strikes, 104 vs 50 significant strikes, 51.2% vs 39.1% accuracy. Trey Waters capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Quinlan | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:54 | 0:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 998 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Trey Waters did not secure a significant ground advantage against Josh Quinlan on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:27 of control time, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Josh Quinlan | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Trey Waters demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Trey Waters capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Quinlan's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Quinlan | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 000 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +25 |
Trey Waters started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Quinlan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Quinlan | Trey Waters |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

