July 12, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Samman | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 027 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Tim Boetsch's 14-fight experience advantage (19 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Boetsch for the expected result. Had Josh Samman pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Josh Samman | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 016 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Samman | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:49 | 3:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 156 | 1 254 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +98 |
Tim Boetsch gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Samman | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 58 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 98 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 052 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -135 | +135 |
Tim Boetsch dominated the striking exchanges with 98 vs 23 total strikes, 38 vs 17 significant strikes, 65.5% vs 43.6% accuracy. Tim Boetsch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Samman | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:07 | 4:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 24 |
| Ground ELO | 885 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -74 | +74 |
Tim Boetsch controlled Josh Samman on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:21 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Samman | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 207 | 178 |
| Activity ELO | 1 033 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +25 |
Tim Boetsch demonstrated solid activity levels with 178 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tim Boetsch capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Samman's 207-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Samman | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 031 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Tim Boetsch started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Samman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Samman | Tim Boetsch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 016 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

