April 19, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -14 | 14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 113 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | +82 | -43 |
Josh Thomson overcame a 14-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 18 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Nate Diaz.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:44 | 3:44 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 224 | 1 271 |
| ELO Change | +140 | -68 |
Josh Thomson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 36 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 71 | 74 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 264 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | +131 | -131 |
Josh Thomson controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 21 significant strikes, 50.7% vs 28.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Josh Thomson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:21 | 0:54 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 144 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -69 |
Josh Thomson landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 3 164 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 085 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -34 |
Josh Thomson demonstrated extended layoff with 3164 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Josh Thomson capitalized on this activity level, while Nate Diaz's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 062 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -27 |
Josh Thomson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nate Diaz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 048 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.