July 14, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 057 | 1 278 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Tony Ferguson's 3-fight experience advantage (10 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tony Ferguson for the expected result. Had Josh Thomson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 180 | 1 384 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Tony Ferguson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 33 | 83 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 100 | 149 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 35 | 101 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 147 | 1 367 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Tony Ferguson dominated the striking exchanges with 101 vs 35 total strikes, 83 vs 33 significant strikes, 55.7% vs 33.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:32 | 1:45 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 21 |
| Ground ELO | 1 095 | 1 426 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
Tony Ferguson did not secure a significant ground advantage against Josh Thomson on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:45 of control time, 21 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 354 | 137 |
| Activity ELO | 1 052 | 1 354 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +14 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated solid activity levels with 137 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Thomson's 354-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 6 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 019 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +29 |
Tony Ferguson continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Josh Thomson's now at 0.
| Metric | Josh Thomson | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.