February 5, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 987 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Joshua Burkman's 8-fight experience advantage (14 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joshua Burkman for the expected result. Had KJ Noons pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 064 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Joshua Burkman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 57 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 108 | 63 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 45 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 988 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Joshua Burkman controlled the striking exchanges with 57 vs 33 significant strikes. Joshua Burkman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:03 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 005 | 860 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -83 |
Joshua Burkman controlled KJ Noons on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 3:03 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 253 |
| Activity ELO | 1 096 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -22 |
Joshua Burkman demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joshua Burkman capitalized on this activity level, while KJ Noons's 253-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
Joshua Burkman started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. KJ Noons is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | KJ Noons |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.