September 30, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 15 | -15 |
| Experience ELO | 881 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Zak Ottow overcame a 15-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Joshua Burkman.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 946 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 023 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Zak Ottow receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 47 | 65 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 126 | 149 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 50 | 80 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 944 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Zak Ottow controlled the striking exchanges with 80 vs 50 total strikes, 65 vs 47 significant strikes. Zak Ottow capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:16 | 0:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 966 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Zak Ottow did not secure a significant ground advantage against Joshua Burkman on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 125 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 051 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Zak Ottow demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Zak Ottow capitalized on this activity level, while Joshua Burkman's 125-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 963 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Zak Ottow started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joshua Burkman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joshua Burkman | Zak Ottow |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 946 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.