March 8, 2025
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Joshua Van | Rei Tsuruya |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 153 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Joshua Van's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joshua Van for the expected result. Had Rei Tsuruya pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Joshua Van | Rei Tsuruya |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 088 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Joshua Van | Rei Tsuruya |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 189 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Joshua Van earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Joshua Van | Rei Tsuruya |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 59 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 84 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 127 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 142 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Joshua Van dominated the striking exchanges with 127 vs 47 total strikes, 59 vs 32 significant strikes, 60.8% vs 38.1% accuracy. Joshua Van capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Joshua Van | Rei Tsuruya |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 21 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:50 | 3:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 139 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Joshua Van did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rei Tsuruya on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:50 of control time, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Joshua Van | Rei Tsuruya |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 253 |
| Activity ELO | 1 241 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -10 |
Joshua Van demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joshua Van capitalized on this activity level, while Rei Tsuruya's 253-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Joshua Van | Rei Tsuruya |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 109 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Joshua Van extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rei Tsuruya is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Joshua Van | Rei Tsuruya |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 088 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

