November 29, 2018
Ultimate Fighter 28 Heavyweight Tournament Title Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Juan Espino | Justin Frazier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Juan Espino | Justin Frazier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Juan Espino | Justin Frazier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:36 | 3:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 069 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -42 |
Juan Espino earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:36, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Juan Espino | Justin Frazier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 44 | 17 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 057 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Juan Espino controlled the striking exchanges with 44 vs 17 total strikes, 22 vs 4 significant strikes, 95.7% vs 66.7% accuracy. Juan Espino capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Juan Espino | Justin Frazier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:21 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 144 | 856 |
| ELO Change | +144 | -144 |
Juan Espino dominated Justin Frazier on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:21 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Juan Espino | Justin Frazier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Juan Espino demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Juan Espino capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Frazier's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Juan Espino | Justin Frazier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Juan Espino started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Frazier is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Juan Espino | Justin Frazier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

