Juan Espino vs Justin Frazier

November 29, 2018

Ultimate Fighter 28 Heavyweight Tournament Title Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1047
(+47)
Juan Espino
Winner: Juan Espino
Submission
Round 1 • 3:36

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Juan Espino+47
Justin Frazier-43
957
(-43)
Justin Frazier

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Juan Espino: +21Justin Frazier: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJuan EspinoJustin Frazier
Total UFC Fights11
Experience Gap00
Experience ELO1 021979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Juan Espino: +21Justin Frazier: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJuan EspinoJustin Frazier
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 021979
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Juan Espino: +69Justin Frazier: -42

Performance Statistics

MetricJuan EspinoJustin Frazier
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish3:363:36
Win Type ELO1 069958
ELO Change+69-42
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What Happened

Juan Espino earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:36, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Juan Espino: +57Justin Frazier: -57

Performance Statistics

MetricJuan EspinoJustin Frazier
Significant Strikes Landed224
Significant Strikes Attempted236
Total Strikes Landed4417
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 057943
ELO Change+57-57
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What Happened

Juan Espino controlled the striking exchanges with 44 vs 17 total strikes, 22 vs 4 significant strikes, 95.7% vs 66.7% accuracy. Juan Espino capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Juan Espino: +144Justin Frazier: -144

Performance Statistics

MetricJuan EspinoJustin Frazier
Takedowns Landed20
Takedowns Attempted20
Ground Control Time3:210:00
Ground Strikes Landed170
Ground ELO1 144856
ELO Change+144-144
💡

What Happened

Juan Espino dominated Justin Frazier on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:21 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Juan Espino: +21Justin Frazier: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJuan EspinoJustin Frazier
Days Since Last FightN/AN/A
Activity ELO1 021979
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

Juan Espino demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Juan Espino capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Frazier's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Juan Espino: +23Justin Frazier: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJuan EspinoJustin Frazier
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 023979
ELO Change+23-21
💡

What Happened

Juan Espino started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Frazier is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Juan Espino: +21Justin Frazier: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricJuan EspinoJustin Frazier
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 021979
ELO Change+21-21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.