December 1, 2023
Women's Bantamweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Julia Avila | Miesha Tate |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 039 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Miesha Tate's 8-fight experience advantage (13 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Miesha Tate for the expected result. Had Julia Avila pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Julia Avila | Miesha Tate |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 014 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Julia Avila | Miesha Tate |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:15 | 1:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 071 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +70 |
Miesha Tate earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:15, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Julia Avila was submitted.
| Metric | Julia Avila | Miesha Tate |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 127 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 988 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -100 | +100 |
Miesha Tate dominated the striking exchanges with 127 vs 11 total strikes, 32 vs 3 significant strikes, 86.5% vs 27.3% accuracy. Miesha Tate capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Julia Avila | Miesha Tate |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 10:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 27 |
| Ground ELO | 861 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -199 | +199 |
Miesha Tate dominated Julia Avila on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 10:55 of control time, 27 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Julia Avila | Miesha Tate |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 890 | 505 |
| Activity ELO | 1 017 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +17 |
Miesha Tate demonstrated extended layoff with 505 days since her last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Miesha Tate capitalized on this activity level, while Julia Avila's 890-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Julia Avila | Miesha Tate |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 019 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Miesha Tate started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Julia Avila is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Julia Avila | Miesha Tate |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Bantamweight | Women's Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 011 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.