May 17, 2019
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 856 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +20 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 940 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:49 | 1:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 874 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +44 |
Julio Arce gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 74 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 160 | 160 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 74 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 756 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
Julio Arce controlled the striking exchanges with 74 vs 46 total strikes, 74 vs 43 significant strikes, 46.3% vs 26.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Julio Arce capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:33 | 0:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 843 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Julio Arce landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 70 | 196 |
| Activity ELO | 942 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +21 |
Julio Arce demonstrated standard activity with 196 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Julio Arce capitalized on this activity level, while Julian Erosa's 70-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 942 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Julio Arce started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Julian Erosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Julio Arce |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 940 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.