May 17, 2025
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Melquizael Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 067 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +44 |
Melquizael Costa overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Julian Erosa.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Melquizael Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 048 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Melquizael Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 272 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Melquizael Costa earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Melquizael Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 69 | 102 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 173 | 204 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 85 | 128 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 036 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Melquizael Costa controlled the striking exchanges with 128 vs 85 total strikes, 102 vs 69 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 39.9% accuracy. Melquizael Costa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Melquizael Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:34 | 0:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 203 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Melquizael Costa edged out Julian Erosa on the ground with 2 takedowns, 0:23 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Melquizael Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 35 | 49 |
| Activity ELO | 1 156 | 1 291 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +101 |
Melquizael Costa demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 49 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Melquizael Costa capitalized on this activity level, while Julian Erosa's 35-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Melquizael Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 086 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +32 |
Melquizael Costa extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Julian Erosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Julian Erosa | Melquizael Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 048 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.