March 3, 2023
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Marc-Andre Barriault |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 021 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Marc-Andre Barriault's 4-fight experience advantage (10 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marc-Andre Barriault for the expected result. Had Julian Marquez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Marc-Andre Barriault |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 992 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Marc-Andre Barriault |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:12 | 4:12 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 065 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +97 |
Marc-Andre Barriault gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Marc-Andre Barriault |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 82 | 109 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 171 | 222 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 83 | 127 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 824 | 970 |
| ELO Change | -56 | +56 |
Marc-Andre Barriault controlled the striking exchanges with 127 vs 83 total strikes, 109 vs 82 significant strikes. Marc-Andre Barriault capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Marc-Andre Barriault |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 000 | 923 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Marc-Andre Barriault did not secure a significant ground advantage against Julian Marquez on the ground with 1:29 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Marc-Andre Barriault |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 260 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 118 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +48 |
Marc-Andre Barriault demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Marc-Andre Barriault capitalized on this activity level, while Julian Marquez's 260-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Marc-Andre Barriault |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +25 |
Marc-Andre Barriault started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Julian Marquez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Marc-Andre Barriault |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 991 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.