April 9, 2021
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -17 | 17 |
| Experience ELO | 1 102 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -28 |
Julian Marquez overcame a 17-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Sam Alvey.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:07 | 2:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 159 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -44 |
Julian Marquez earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:07, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Sam Alvey was submitted.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 61 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 100 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 083 | 907 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Julian Marquez controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 29 total strikes, 61 vs 29 significant strikes, 61.0% vs 37.2% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Julian Marquez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:16 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 19 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 090 | 893 |
| ELO Change | +118 | -118 |
Julian Marquez dominated Sam Alvey on the ground with 0:16 of control time, 19 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 56 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 174 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | +159 | -32 |
Julian Marquez demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 56 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Julian Marquez capitalized on this activity level, while Sam Alvey's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Julian Marquez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Sam Alvey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Julian Marquez | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 036 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.