September 19, 1996
Open Weight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Julian Sanchez | Mark Coleman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Mark Coleman's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Mark Coleman for the expected result. Had Julian Sanchez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Julian Sanchez | Mark Coleman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 1 138 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Julian Sanchez | Mark Coleman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:45 | 0:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 989 | 1 347 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +24 |
Mark Coleman locked in a lightning-fast Submission in 0:45 of round 1. This explosive first-minute submission earned substantial bonus rewards.
| Metric | Julian Sanchez | Mark Coleman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 0 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 979 | 1 379 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Mark Coleman slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 7 vs 0 significant strikes, 100.0% vs 0.0% accuracy. Mark Coleman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Julian Sanchez | Mark Coleman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | -- | -- |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 957 | 1 305 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Mark Coleman dominated Julian Sanchez on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Julian Sanchez | Mark Coleman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 1 642 |
| ELO Change | -1 | +3 |
Mark Coleman demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Mark Coleman capitalized on this activity level, while Julian Sanchez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Julian Sanchez | Mark Coleman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +22 |
Mark Coleman extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Julian Sanchez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Julian Sanchez | Mark Coleman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.