September 24, 2010
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Julio Paulino | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 950 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
TJ Grant's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding TJ Grant for the expected result. Had Julio Paulino pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Julio Paulino | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 960 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Julio Paulino | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 935 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
TJ Grant earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Julio Paulino | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 42 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 943 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
TJ Grant slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 17 vs 12 significant strikes, 51.5% vs 28.6% accuracy. TJ Grant capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Julio Paulino | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:12 | 9:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 863 | 998 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
TJ Grant controlled Julio Paulino on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 9:00 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Julio Paulino | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 188 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 962 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
TJ Grant demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, TJ Grant capitalized on this activity level, while Julio Paulino's 188-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Julio Paulino | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 961 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
TJ Grant started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Julio Paulino is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Julio Paulino | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

