September 18, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Junior Assuncao | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Junior Assuncao | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Junior Assuncao | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:10 | 4:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 983 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +60 |
Nate Diaz earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:10, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Junior Assuncao | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 14 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 9 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 941 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -67 | +67 |
Nate Diaz controlled the striking exchanges with 90.9% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Nate Diaz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Junior Assuncao | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:59 | 1:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 962 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Nate Diaz controlled Junior Assuncao on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:33 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Junior Assuncao | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 151 | 88 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +60 |
Nate Diaz demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 88 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Nate Diaz capitalized on this activity level, while Junior Assuncao's 151-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Junior Assuncao | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Nate Diaz extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Junior Assuncao is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Junior Assuncao | Nate Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.