Junior Dos Santos vs Roy Nelson

August 6, 2010

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1248
(+27)
Junior Dos Santos
Winner: Junior Dos Santos
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Junior Dos Santos+27
Roy Nelson-23
1079
(-23)
Roy Nelson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Dos Santos: +20Roy Nelson: -20

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior Dos SantosRoy Nelson
Total UFC Fights63
Experience Gap3-3
Experience ELO1 2161 045
ELO Change+20-20
💡

What Happened

Junior Dos Santos's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Junior Dos Santos for the expected result. Had Roy Nelson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Dos Santos: +18Roy Nelson: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior Dos SantosRoy Nelson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1181 025
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Dos Santos: +22Roy Nelson: -22

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior Dos SantosRoy Nelson
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 4131 190
ELO Change+22-22
💡

What Happened

Junior Dos Santos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Dos Santos: +34Roy Nelson: -34

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior Dos SantosRoy Nelson
Significant Strikes Landed13040
Significant Strikes Attempted282101
Total Strikes Landed13840
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 4571 149
ELO Change+34-34
💡

What Happened

Junior Dos Santos dominated the striking exchanges with 138 vs 40 total strikes, 130 vs 40 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Junior Dos Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Dos Santos: +41Roy Nelson: -41

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior Dos SantosRoy Nelson
Takedowns Landed10
Takedowns Attempted27
Ground Control Time0:201:30
Ground Strikes Landed10
Ground ELO1 2701 081
ELO Change+41-41
💡

What Happened

Junior Dos Santos landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Dos Santos: +31Roy Nelson: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior Dos SantosRoy Nelson
Days Since Last Fight139129
Activity ELO1 2221 081
ELO Change+31-15
💡

What Happened

Junior Dos Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 139 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Junior Dos Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Roy Nelson's 129-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Dos Santos: +38Roy Nelson: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior Dos SantosRoy Nelson
Win Streak60
Win Streak ELO1 1731 035
ELO Change+38-16
💡

What Happened

Junior Dos Santos continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Roy Nelson's now at 0.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Dos Santos: +18Roy Nelson: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior Dos SantosRoy Nelson
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1181 025
ELO Change+18-18
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.