August 6, 2010
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 216 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Junior Dos Santos's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Junior Dos Santos for the expected result. Had Roy Nelson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 118 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 413 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Junior Dos Santos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 130 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 282 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 138 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 457 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Junior Dos Santos dominated the striking exchanges with 138 vs 40 total strikes, 130 vs 40 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Junior Dos Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 1:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 270 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Junior Dos Santos landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 139 | 129 |
| Activity ELO | 1 222 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -15 |
Junior Dos Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 139 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Junior Dos Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Roy Nelson's 129-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 173 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -16 |
Junior Dos Santos continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Roy Nelson's now at 0.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 118 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

