November 30, 2018
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 18 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 302 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Junior Dos Santos's 14-fight experience advantage (18 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Junior Dos Santos for the expected result. Had Tai Tuivasa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 232 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:30 | 2:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 555 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -13 |
Junior Dos Santos gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 26 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 65 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 16 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 443 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -49 |
Junior Dos Santos controlled the striking exchanges with 37 vs 16 total strikes, 26 vs 16 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Junior Dos Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:48 | 1:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 286 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Junior Dos Santos landed 1 knockdown followed by 11 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 310 | 1 145 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -14 |
Junior Dos Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Junior Dos Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Tai Tuivasa's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 289 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -10 |
Junior Dos Santos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tai Tuivasa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Junior Dos Santos | Tai Tuivasa |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 165 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.