Junior Tafa vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima

February 16, 2024

Heavyweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

995
(-32)
Junior Tafa
Winner: Marcos Rogerio de Lima
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 1:14

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Junior Tafa-32
Marcos Rogerio de Lima+34
1169
(+34)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Tafa: -21Marcos Rogerio de Lima: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior TafaMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Total UFC Fights318
Experience Gap-1515
Experience ELO1 0031 168
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

Marcos Rogerio de Lima's 15-fight experience advantage (18 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcos Rogerio de Lima for the expected result. Had Junior Tafa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Tafa: -18Marcos Rogerio de Lima: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior TafaMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9851 076
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Tafa: -17Marcos Rogerio de Lima: +35

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior TafaMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish1:141:14
Win Type ELO1 0881 379
ELO Change-17+35
💡

What Happened

Marcos Rogerio de Lima gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Tafa: -112Marcos Rogerio de Lima: +112

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior TafaMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Significant Strikes Landed1133
Significant Strikes Attempted2746
Total Strikes Landed1763
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO9731 213
ELO Change-112+112
💡

What Happened

Marcos Rogerio de Lima controlled the striking exchanges with 63 vs 17 total strikes, 33 vs 11 significant strikes, 71.7% vs 40.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Tafa: -37Marcos Rogerio de Lima: +37

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior TafaMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted03
Ground Control Time0:003:26
Ground Strikes Landed110
Ground ELO9161 155
ELO Change-37+37
💡

What Happened

Marcos Rogerio de Lima landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Tafa: -14Marcos Rogerio de Lima: +17

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior TafaMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Days Since Last Fight176204
Activity ELO1 0211 179
ELO Change-14+17
💡

What Happened

Marcos Rogerio de Lima demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this activity level, while Junior Tafa's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Tafa: -16Marcos Rogerio de Lima: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior TafaMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO9901 106
ELO Change-16+18
💡

What Happened

Marcos Rogerio de Lima started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Junior Tafa is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Junior Tafa: -18Marcos Rogerio de Lima: +18

Performance Statistics

MetricJunior TafaMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Weight ClassHeavyweightHeavyweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9851 076
ELO Change-18+18
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.