February 16, 2024
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 003 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima's 15-fight experience advantage (18 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Marcos Rogerio de Lima for the expected result. Had Junior Tafa pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:14 | 1:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 088 | 1 379 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +35 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 46 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 973 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -112 | +112 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima controlled the striking exchanges with 63 vs 17 total strikes, 33 vs 11 significant strikes, 71.7% vs 40.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 3:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 916 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima landed 1 knockdown followed by 10 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +17 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Marcos Rogerio de Lima capitalized on this activity level, while Junior Tafa's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +18 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Junior Tafa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

