April 21, 2023
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (1 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 968 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Mohammed Usman earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 37 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 976 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Mohammed Usman controlled the striking exchanges with 79 vs 37 total strikes, 7 vs 22 significant strikes, 24.1% vs 36.1% accuracy. Mohammed Usman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 12:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 927 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -73 | +73 |
Mohammed Usman dominated Junior Tafa on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 12:03 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 980 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Mohammed Usman demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mohammed Usman capitalized on this activity level, while Junior Tafa's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Mohammed Usman extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Junior Tafa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Junior Tafa | Mohammed Usman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.