September 21, 2017
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Jussier Formiga | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 103 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Jussier Formiga's 3-fight experience advantage (10 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jussier Formiga for the expected result. Had Yuta Sasaki pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Jussier Formiga | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 051 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Jussier Formiga | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:30 | 4:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 206 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -39 |
Jussier Formiga earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:30, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Jussier Formiga | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 12 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 029 | 917 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Yuta Sasaki controlled the striking through superior volume (36 vs 12 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (16 vs 9). However, since Yuta Sasaki lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jussier Formiga's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Jussier Formiga | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:33 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 177 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Jussier Formiga controlled Yuta Sasaki on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:33 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Jussier Formiga | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 195 | 97 |
| Activity ELO | 1 105 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Jussier Formiga demonstrated standard activity with 195 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jussier Formiga capitalized on this activity level, while Yuta Sasaki's 97-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Jussier Formiga | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 995 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Jussier Formiga started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Yuta Sasaki is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Jussier Formiga | Yuta Sasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 051 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.