February 5, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 920 | 990 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 942 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 957 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Mac Danzig earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 130 | 126 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 146 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 874 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Mac Danzig dominated the striking exchanges with 146 vs 36 total strikes, 62 vs 30 significant strikes, 49.2% vs 23.1% accuracy. Mac Danzig capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:24 | 4:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 822 | 968 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Mac Danzig controlled Justin Buchholz on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 4:46 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 144 | 211 |
| Activity ELO | 967 | 1 033 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +25 |
Mac Danzig demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Mac Danzig capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Buchholz's 144-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 948 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Mac Danzig started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Buchholz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Mac Danzig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 942 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.