January 22, 2008
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Matt Wiman's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Wiman for the expected result. Had Justin Buchholz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:56 | 2:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 970 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +52 |
Matt Wiman earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:56, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 10 | 9 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 954 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Matt Wiman edged the striking exchanges with 24 vs 3 total strikes, 66.7% vs 30.0% accuracy. Matt Wiman capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 917 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Matt Wiman dominated Justin Buchholz on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:40 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 124 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Matt Wiman demonstrated solid activity levels with 124 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Wiman capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Buchholz's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Matt Wiman extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Buchholz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Matt Wiman |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.