Justin Buchholz vs Terry Etim

June 12, 2009

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

982
(-25)
Justin Buchholz
Winner: Terry Etim
Submission
Round 2 • 2:38

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Justin Buchholz-25
Terry Etim+31
1077
(+31)
Terry Etim

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Buchholz: -29Terry Etim: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin BuchholzTerry Etim
Total UFC Fights36
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO9811 063
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Terry Etim's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Terry Etim for the expected result. Had Justin Buchholz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Buchholz: -20Terry Etim: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin BuchholzTerry Etim
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9831 043
ELO Change-20+20
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Buchholz: -34Terry Etim: +53

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin BuchholzTerry Etim
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:382:38
Win Type ELO1 0201 171
ELO Change-34+53
💡

What Happened

Terry Etim earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:38, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Justin Buchholz was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Buchholz: -15Terry Etim: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin BuchholzTerry Etim
Significant Strikes Landed2327
Significant Strikes Attempted6650
Total Strikes Landed4331
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO9681 127
ELO Change-15+15
💡

What Happened

Justin Buchholz controlled the striking through superior accuracy (34.8% vs 54.0%), 1 knockdown. However, since Justin Buchholz lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Terry Etim's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Buchholz: -45Terry Etim: +45

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin BuchholzTerry Etim
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted10
Ground Control Time1:561:44
Ground Strikes Landed70
Ground ELO929996
ELO Change-45+45
💡

What Happened

Terry Etim edged out Justin Buchholz on the ground with 1:44 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Buchholz: -18Terry Etim: +45

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin BuchholzTerry Etim
Days Since Last Fight343112
Activity ELO1 0051 118
ELO Change-18+45
💡

What Happened

Terry Etim demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Terry Etim capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Buchholz's 343-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Buchholz: -19Terry Etim: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin BuchholzTerry Etim
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO9881 057
ELO Change-19+25
💡

What Happened

Terry Etim extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Buchholz is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Buchholz: -20Terry Etim: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin BuchholzTerry Etim
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9831 043
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.