June 12, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Terry Etim |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 981 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Terry Etim's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Terry Etim for the expected result. Had Justin Buchholz pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Terry Etim |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Terry Etim |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:38 | 2:38 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 020 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +53 |
Terry Etim earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 2:38, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Justin Buchholz was submitted.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Terry Etim |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 66 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 31 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 968 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Justin Buchholz controlled the striking through superior accuracy (34.8% vs 54.0%), 1 knockdown. However, since Justin Buchholz lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Terry Etim's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Terry Etim |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:56 | 1:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 929 | 996 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Terry Etim edged out Justin Buchholz on the ground with 1:44 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Terry Etim |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 343 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 005 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +45 |
Terry Etim demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Terry Etim capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Buchholz's 343-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Terry Etim |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 988 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Terry Etim extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Buchholz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Buchholz | Terry Etim |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

