October 23, 2020
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 380 | 1 478 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov's 5-fight experience advantage (13 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Khabib Nurmagomedov for the expected result. Had Justin Gaethje pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 105 | 1 375 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +26 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Khabib Nurmagomedov captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:34 | 1:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 604 | 1 718 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +63 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:34, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Justin Gaethje was submitted.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 516 | 1 611 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Justin Gaethje controlled the striking through superior accuracy (64.4% vs 32.5%). However, since Justin Gaethje lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Khabib Nurmagomedov's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 0:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 237 | 1 762 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov dominated Justin Gaethje on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 0:55 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 413 |
| Activity ELO | 1 222 | 1 400 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +11 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov demonstrated extended layoff with 413 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Khabib Nurmagomedov capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Gaethje's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 13 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 164 | 1 593 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +33 |
Khabib Nurmagomedov extended his incredible 13-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Justin Gaethje is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Khabib Nurmagomedov |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 097 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.