April 12, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 29 |
| Experience Gap | -16 | 16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 424 | 1 451 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Max Holloway's 16-fight experience advantage (29 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Max Holloway for the expected result. Had Justin Gaethje pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 150 | 1 368 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 4:59 | 4:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 650 | 1 759 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +90 |
Max Holloway gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 5, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 103 | 181 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 199 | 309 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 103 | 181 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 520 | 1 741 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Max Holloway dominated the striking exchanges with 181 vs 103 total strikes, 181 vs 103 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Max Holloway capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 329 | 1 537 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 231 |
| Activity ELO | 1 297 | 1 478 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +15 |
Max Holloway demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Max Holloway capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Gaethje's 259-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 227 | 1 522 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +9 |
Max Holloway extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Gaethje is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 134 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.