November 5, 2021
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 392 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Justin Gaethje's 6-fight experience advantage (9 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Justin Gaethje for the expected result. Had Michael Chandler pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 121 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 610 | 1 164 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
Justin Gaethje earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 116 | 103 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 183 | 245 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 133 | 104 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 528 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Justin Gaethje controlled the striking exchanges with 133 vs 104 total strikes, 116 vs 103 significant strikes, 63.4% vs 42.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:37 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 270 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Justin Gaethje landed 1 knockdown followed by 9 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 379 | 176 |
| Activity ELO | 1 232 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -11 |
Justin Gaethje demonstrated extended layoff with 379 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Chandler's 176-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 179 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -13 |
Justin Gaethje started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Chandler is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 113 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.