Justin Gaethje vs Michael Johnson

July 6, 2017

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1065
(+65)
Justin Gaethje
Winner: Justin Gaethje
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 4:48

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Justin Gaethje+65
Michael Johnson-55
1116
(-55)
Michael Johnson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Gaethje: +132Michael Johnson: -132

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin GaethjeMichael Johnson
Total UFC Fights116
Experience Gap-1515
Experience ELO1 1321 016
ELO Change+132-132
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What Happened

Justin Gaethje overcame a 15-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Michael Johnson.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Gaethje: +24Michael Johnson: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin GaethjeMichael Johnson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0241 026
ELO Change+24-24
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Gaethje: +154Michael Johnson: -75

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin GaethjeMichael Johnson
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish4:484:48
Win Type ELO1 1541 294
ELO Change+154-75
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What Happened

Justin Gaethje gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Gaethje: +97Michael Johnson: -97

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin GaethjeMichael Johnson
Significant Strikes Landed10491
Significant Strikes Attempted174200
Total Strikes Landed10491
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0971 227
ELO Change+97-97
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What Happened

Justin Gaethje edged the striking exchanges with 104 vs 91 significant strikes, 59.8% vs 45.5% accuracy. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Gaethje: +29Michael Johnson: -29

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin GaethjeMichael Johnson
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted03
Ground Control Time0:060:34
Ground Strikes Landed01
Ground ELO1 0291 107
ELO Change+29-29
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What Happened

Justin Gaethje did not secure a significant ground advantage against Michael Johnson on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Gaethje: +32Michael Johnson: -32

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin GaethjeMichael Johnson
Days Since Last FightN/A237
Activity ELO1 0321 167
ELO Change+32-32
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What Happened

Justin Gaethje demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Johnson's 237-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Gaethje: +29Michael Johnson: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin GaethjeMichael Johnson
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 0291 064
ELO Change+29-26
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What Happened

Justin Gaethje started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Justin Gaethje: +24Michael Johnson: -24

Performance Statistics

MetricJustin GaethjeMichael Johnson
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0241 026
ELO Change+24-24
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.