July 6, 2017
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +132 | -132 |
Justin Gaethje overcame a 15-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Michael Johnson.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:48 | 4:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 154 | 1 294 |
| ELO Change | +154 | -75 |
Justin Gaethje gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 104 | 91 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 174 | 200 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 104 | 91 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 097 | 1 227 |
| ELO Change | +97 | -97 |
Justin Gaethje edged the striking exchanges with 104 vs 91 significant strikes, 59.8% vs 45.5% accuracy. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 0:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 029 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Justin Gaethje did not secure a significant ground advantage against Michael Johnson on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 237 |
| Activity ELO | 1 032 | 1 167 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Justin Gaethje demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Johnson's 237-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -26 |
Justin Gaethje started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Michael Johnson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 024 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

