March 17, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 390 | 1 294 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Justin Gaethje's 3-fight experience advantage (11 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Justin Gaethje for the expected result. Had Rafael Fiziev pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 132 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Majority | Decision - Majority |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 589 | 1 424 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The Decision - Majority showed mixed judging, with Justin Gaethje earning reduced bonuses for the unclear victory margin.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 103 | 97 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 171 | 169 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 106 | 97 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 477 | 1 308 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Justin Gaethje slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 103 vs 97 significant strikes. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 271 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 316 | 253 |
| Activity ELO | 1 246 | 1 199 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Justin Gaethje demonstrated standard activity with 316 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Fiziev's 253-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 199 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Justin Gaethje started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Fiziev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 121 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.