March 8, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 441 | 1 241 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Justin Gaethje's 4-fight experience advantage (14 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Justin Gaethje for the expected result. Had Rafael Fiziev pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 167 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 664 | 1 362 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Justin Gaethje earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 72 | 68 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 134 | 119 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 98 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 539 | 1 229 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Justin Gaethje controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:32 | 0:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 342 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Justin Gaethje landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 330 | 533 |
| Activity ELO | 1 311 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Justin Gaethje demonstrated standard activity with 330 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Rafael Fiziev's 533-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 246 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Justin Gaethje started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafael Fiziev is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Rafael Fiziev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 151 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.