May 8, 2020
UFC Interim Lightweight Title Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 408 | 1 410 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -41 |
Justin Gaethje overcame a 10-fight experience disadvantage (7 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Tony Ferguson.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 114 | 1 228 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 3:39 | 3:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 645 | 1 574 |
| ELO Change | +104 | -52 |
Justin Gaethje gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 5, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 143 | 136 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 197 | 296 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 143 | 136 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 533 | 1 461 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Justin Gaethje slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 143 vs 136 significant strikes, 72.6% vs 45.9% accuracy. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 251 | 1 501 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 336 |
| Activity ELO | 1 234 | 1 471 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -36 |
Justin Gaethje demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Tony Ferguson's 336-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 168 | 1 515 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -39 |
Justin Gaethje extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tony Ferguson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Gaethje | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 110 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.