August 10, 2012
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Justin Lawrence | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 988 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Justin Lawrence | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Justin Lawrence | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:49 | 4:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 034 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +103 |
Max Holloway gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Lawrence | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 90 | 124 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 003 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -92 | +92 |
Max Holloway controlled the striking exchanges with 23.4% vs 35.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Max Holloway capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Justin Lawrence | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:09 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 027 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Max Holloway landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Justin Lawrence | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 71 | 71 |
| Activity ELO | 1 001 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +60 |
Max Holloway demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 71 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Max Holloway capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Lawrence's 71-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Justin Lawrence | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +26 |
Max Holloway extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Lawrence is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Justin Lawrence | Max Holloway |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.